Andrea Boltho began his presentation with the words: “The previous speaker wasn’t gloomy. But I am.” The Director of Oxford Economics at Oxford University then proceeded to go through a presentation simply titled ‘Stagnation or Recession?’, going through the triple-shock effects of Covid, inflation and war.

According to Professor Boltho, while we are not completely out of the woods with Covid (“There are still eight letters between omicron and omega”), inflation is expected to decelerate over time and forecasts look relatively optimistic. Regarding the war in Ukraine, he predicts two immediate economic effects: a sharp inflationary shock, mainly to energy and food prices, and a massive loss of confidence, adding to the fears of recession.

Educated in Italy and at the Universities of London (LSE), Paris, and Oxford. From 1966 to 1977 at the OECD’s Department of Economics and Statistics. In1973-74 Japan Foundation Fellow at the Research Institute of the Economic Planning Agency, Tokyo. From 1977 to 2007, Fellow and Tutor in Economics at Magdalen College, University of Oxford. Since 2008 Emeritus Fellow.

At various stages, consultant to the World Bank, the OECD and member of the Academic Council of the IFO Institute, Munich, as well as Visiting Professor in various European universities. Has been a Member of the Board of Finmeccanica and is a Director of Oxford Economics.

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