BPIF Printing Outlook Q4 2025

Strongest output and order growth for three years in Q3 triggers a turnaround in confidence – further improvements expected in Q4.

The strongest growth in output and orders for over three years, has given the UK printing and printed packaging industry a major Q3 boost, and triggered a dramatic turnaround in industry confidence – according to the latest BPIF Printing Outlook survey.

Output and order levels have shown strong growth in Q3, above and beyond the positive forecasts from last quarter, with more forecast to come in Q4. Previous concerns over confidence in the general state of trade have dissipated, industry confidence has turned a sharp corner. Underlying the headline improvement in output and orders are positive strides in capacity utilisation, recruitment, cost control, and strategic plans to improve profitability.

Volume Of Output – Q3 Boost Above Forecast, More Expected In Q4

The Q3 output balance of +39 was well above the forecast. A balance of +45 is forecast for Q4.

Industry concerns do of course remain over many matters, particularly regarding ultra-competitive pricing strategies, wage levels, external threats to print and Government involvement. Of course, not all parts of the industry will yet be feeling the improvement in performance – some have reported a tightening of budgets ahead of the Autumn Budget, and those towards the end of the supply chain may not yet have seen the increase in activity flow through – the improved performance is still a significant boost.

Top Business Concerns – % Of Respondents Selecting

However, let last year be a cautionary tale – a Q3 improvement in orders and output provided an uplift in confidence that was unfortunately shattered by an underperforming economy and an Autumn Budget that was disappointing for business. Many will nervously be waiting to see what is announced during the next Budget on 26th November.

The industry won’t just wait though – respondents to the survey have voiced additional opportunities for the industry in many areas. Opportunities such as enhancing creativity, selling to online platforms, making sustainability improvements and offering sustainable solutions, communicating the value of print, instilling passion for print in a younger generation, utilising AI, and integrating rather than replacing print. There is much to get excited about.

A significant majority of the industry is continuing to make progress towards addressing sustainability issues, but a small core has so far been either unable or unwilling to get involved. That said, considerable progress has been made regarding measuring carbon emissions, setting targets, validating those targets, gaining relevant accreditations, and investing in initiatives to further improve their sustainability performance and credentials.

Measuring Emissions Scope – % Of Respondents

Previously there had been a noticeable progression from companies starting to measure their emissions, covering Scope 1 and 2, and then incorporating Scope 3. More recently it seems that progress has stalled slightly.

31% of all responding companies are measuring Scope 1, 2 and 3. This has fallen from 35% in April, and 37% in October last year. However, it remains above the 34% in April 2024, and the figures reported prior to that. A further 38% are currently measuring Scope 1 and 2 only, with another 7% not sure what the coverage of their measurement is.

The BPIF Printing Outlook Q4 2025 report features sections on industry turnover, business concerns, costs, pay reviews, sustainability and much more.

Kyle Jardine, BPIF Economist, said:

“The third and fourth quarters are a traditionally busier time for much of the printing industry, but in recent years there has always been a concern that it wouldn’t materialise or would be muted. However, there has now been a significant improvement in confidence during Q3, and in the outlook for Q4 – despite little change in the performance of the UK economy.”

Charles Jarrold, BPIF Chief Executive, said:

“Printing has been through enormous change but remains a huge and important industry. We are talking to Government more now than ever about critical issues, and that engagement is very valuable. Our industry has a great productivity and investment record; however, Government policies have increased business costs significantly, notably on employment costs and with additional legislation, all of which affects the ability of businesses to invest back into their companies. We have strongly communicated this to Government and now we wait, along with the rest of the country, to see what will be unveiled at the Autumn Budget.”

Duncan Smith, Country Director, Production, Canon UK & Ireland, and sponsor of the printed Printing Outlook report, said:

“The BPIF Printing Outlook report consistently offers a valuable lens through which we can better understand the shifting priorities and aspirations of the print community. It helps guide our thinking as we continue to develop technologies that enable businesses to evolve, innovate, and thrive in a competitive landscape.”

Summary of key findings:

• The strongest growth in output and orders for over three years, has given the UK printing and printed packaging industry a major Q3 boost, and triggered a dramatic turnaround in industry confidence – according to the latest BPIF Printing Outlook survey.
• More than half (52%) of printers were able to increase their output levels in the third quarter of 2025. The forecast for output in Q4 is even more positive, according to respondents’ predictions.
• Industry confidence has shown a striking turnaround on the back of the vastly improved output and orders reported in Q3, and the outlook for Q4.
• Concerns that competitors are pricing below cost has retained its position as printers’ top business concern, remaining a more prominent issue ahead of concerns over wage pressures, the loss of clients from print, and taxation.
• Industry capacity utilisation was significantly greater in October, compared to July, due to many more companies operating in the higher capacity ranges.
• There was a turnaround in employment recruitment during Q3, after three consecutive quarters of declines, employment improved, on balance, in line with the forecast, intentions for Q4 are similarly positive.
• Average price levels did stabilise in Q3, continuing the trend of accurate forecasts – only just maintaining a positive balance.
• As in recent quarters, a majority of respondents have been able to keep costs stable in Q3, the outlier still being labour costs. Whilst a small majority did maintain stable labour costs there is still more pressure coming through than for any other cost area.
• In October, labour costs (direct and indirect) became the largest cost component with 32% share, on average, of total costs. It was a significant reduction in the share of paper, board, and other substrates costs, from 35% in July to 31% in October that made this possible.
• Just over three-fifths (62%) of printing companies have been able to hold margins steady in Q3, but the pressure has remained firmly downwards on margins.
• Increasing productivity through diversification has now become the top priority when it comes to company plans to increase profitability in the next twelve months.
• Less than two-fifths (17%) of respondents reported that they had conducted a pay review in Q3. Where pay reviews were conducted in Q3, the resulting average (mean) change in basic pay was 3.3%, as it was in Q2, but down from the 4.9% in Q3 last year. Just over one-tenth (12%) of respondents reported that they will be reviewing pay in Q4,
• A significant majority of the industry is continuing to make progress towards addressing sustainability issues, but a small core has so far been either unable or unwilling to get involved.
• In October 75% of respondents reported that they are measuring their carbon emissions. Over four-fifths of respondents (83%) stated that they are working to reduce their carbon footprint.
• The most popular area of attention for sustainability related investments is unchanged from April – waste reduction.

Featured in Printing Outlook this quarter:

• Output and orders – last quarter and forecast for this quarter.
• Business confidence, concerns, and uncertainty levels.
• Turnover – annual and monthly turnover analysis and forecasts.
• Capacity – utilisation and constraints.
• Costs – paper & board, ink, labour, energy, and average cost structure.
• Trend data on employment, prices, costs, margins, profits, cash flow and productivity.
• Profitability benchmarks and plans for improvement.
• Pay Reviews – activity and average % changes.
• International trade – export orders and price trends.
• Sustainability – measuring, reducing, and investing.
• Consumables – paper consumption and printing ink data.
• Energy – sector update and comment.

For further information on Printing Outlook go to www.britishprint.com/printingoutlook

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